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EquiTrend Historical Performance & Statistics

The EquiTrend Stock Market Timing System is a quantitative decision support model that takes the emotion out of investing. It was developed to mitigate market risk and reduce the impact of market volatility on investment results.

Decision support models are used extensively in business today. Manufacturing operations use them for quality control, production planning, and inventory management. NASA uses algorithms in its entire process. The banking industry lends billions of dollars using a decision support model called a credit score. (If you have ever bought anything on credit, you have been “credit-scored.”)

If the most conservative industry in the country can use a decision support model to lend billions of dollars every year, you can use the EquiTrend Stock Market Timing System to improve your investment performance.

Like all decision support models, EquiTrend was developed by assigning weights to statistically significant historical variables that help anticipate future events. We were careful to develop the model by only using in-sample data, before testing the model against out-of-sample data. We also randomly selected time periods of data to remove any seasonal bias that can occur in the markets.

In other words, we went to extremes to ensure that EquiTrend is a statistically significant system that was not curve-fitted to the data. EquiTrend has been using this market timing model to actively manage money since June 2001. As the model's performance shows, EquiTrend has substantially outperformed the market during that time.

I used to listen to the garbage put out by the Wall Street marketing machine. As you already know, I have little to show for my efforts. Thanks for opening my eyes to the way things really work.
C.M. Phoenix

The EquiTrend Stock Market Timing System is a variable time frame model designed to trade as frequently as required to match changing market conditions. The holding period may vary from 1 day to several weeks depending on market characteristics. EquiTrend uses a variety of component systems to capture different kinds of market moves.  It will not generally get you “in at the bottom” or “out at the top” of a particular market move. Instead, it attempts to capture capture gains in a portion of each significant market move, whether the market is moving up or down.  

EquiTrend attempts to determine the direction of the market. Its market timing buy and sell signals should significantly improve your results, no matter which investment strategy you use or which types of investments you decide to trade.

Please use the interactive performance calculator to evaluate the current EQ2 signal’s performance on the investments you prefer to trade.  You may also review this report to see the back-tested performance for the EQ2 system that was generated during system design. (Link to Interactive EQ2 report).

 To evaluate EquiTrend’s historical performance and statistics from the original Equitrend Market Timing system which helped so many people through the millennium bear market, please select from two of our favorite investment strategies below (Nasdaq 100 or the
EquiTrend Growth Strategy:

Select an index to view below

Based On Investing 100% Of Your Capital n the NASDAQ 100 Index
1990 through 2005
 
Long Only
Long & Short
Average compound rate of return 30.89% 45.70%
Cumulative rate of return 7,323.11% 41,142.32%
Reward/Risk Ratio 6.91 4.16
Number of winning trades 57 104
Number of losing trades 37 84
Largest capital drawdown for any one trade -6.83% -8.94%
Largest Peak-to-Valley drawdown -25.26% -17.98%
Worst Capital Drawdown for any 3 month period -25.26% -17.98%
Longest time to breakeven if invested at worst possible time 5 Months 4 Months
Max consecutive winning trades 6 8
Max consecutive losing trades 4 5
Average holding period per winning trade 58 Days 46 Days
Average holding period per losing trade 14 Days 12 Days
Probability of a winning trade 60.64% 55.32%
Probability of a losing trade 39.36% 44.68%
Average profit per winning trade 10.58% 9.07%
Average loss per losing trade -2.36% -2.70%
Average number of round trip trades per year 5.90 11.80
Percentage of time invested in the market 66.20% 100.00%


Results

EquiTrend signals can be used to improve the results of many different investment vehicles. Click here to quickly review EquiTrend's performance when compared to buying and holding the major indices. The more closely correlated your investment is to the major indices, the better your results will be. Below are summaries of EquiTrend’s annual performance for two investment strategies: the Nasdaq 100 strategy and our EquiTrend Growth Strategy.

Years Buy & Hold
NASDAQ
100 Index
EquiTrend
NASDAQ
100 Index
Long Only
EquiTrend
NASDAQ
100 Index
Long & Short
EquiTrend
NASDAQ "Aggressive"
100 Index
Long & Short
1990 -10.41% 23.26% 55.62% 111.24%
1991 64.99% 39.53% 16.15% 32.30%
1992 8.86% 14.61% 21.00% 42.00%
1993 10.58% 3.42% -4.44% -8.88%
1994 1.51% 6.11% 9.64% 19.28%
1995 42.54% 50.15% 55.35% 110.70%
1996 42.54% 35.27% 28.63% 57.26%
1997 20.63% 27.72% 36.05% 72.10%
1998 85.31% 117.92% 152.42% 304.84%
1999 101.95% 81.08% 63.42% 126.84%
2000 -37.65% 46.07% 192.80% 385.60%
2001 -32.64% 44.68% 126.17% 252.34%
2002 -38.12% 4.46% 63.44% 126.88%
2003 47.43% 14.23% -4.49% -8.98%
2004 10.44% 21.75% 33.15% 66.30%
2005 1.49% 9.19% 16.60% 33.20%
Avg. Rate of Return 13.05% 30.89% 45.70% 84.27%
Cumulative Return 611.43% 7,323.11% 41,142.32% 1,767,698.60%
Note: 1.) Aggressive Growth Long & Short is based on trading on margin with a 2x exposure
2.) Our calculations do not include commission costs, margin costs, and taxes.
3.) All trades are placed at market open, the day following a signal change.
4.) For Long Only strategies, investment proceeds are kept in cash during periods where the signal is Sell; therefore returning 0% during that time (Actual cumulative returns would be greater using a money market fund instead of cash).